Destined For War: Can America And China Escape ... May 2026

: Named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who observed that the Peloponnesian War was caused by "the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta".

: All-out war could be sparked by "ordinary flashpoints" or accidents that would normally be manageable, such as a trade conflict, cyberattack, or a crisis in Taiwan or the South China Sea.

: The rising power often views its growth as benign and grows more entitled, while the ruling power sees this as ungrateful and fears losing its edge. Why the US-China Case is "Grim" Destined for War: Can America and China Escape ...

: Allison’s team identified 16 cases over the last 500 years where a rising power challenged a ruling one; 12 of these resulted in war .

The "trap" refers to the dangerous structural stress that occurs when a (China) threatens to displace a ruling power (the United States). : Named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides,

: Both nations suffer from "extreme superiority complexes," viewing themselves as exceptional and peerless. Book Summary: Destined for War by Graham Allison

Allison suggests several factors make this seventeenth case particularly dangerous: Why the US-China Case is "Grim" : Allison’s

: China’s rapid economic ascent is unparalleled—surpassing the U.S. in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)—while the U.S. maintains a "DNA to be Number One".